美国玉米农民面临资金流转紧缺：玉米价格在过去三月降近30%

~~

U.S. Corn Farmers Face a Cash Crunch

Prices Have Fallen Nearly 30% in Past Three Months
 

Tumbling corn prices are sowing fears that many U.S. farmers will suffer their first losses in years and the agricultural economy could face its first sustained slump in a decade.

Corn prices have plunged nearly 30% in the past three months to their lowest point since 2010 as near-perfect weather in the Midwest fuels expectations of a second consecutive bumper harvest. Prices of other crops have fallen sharply as well, with soybeans trading near 2½-year lows and wheat near four-year lows.

 

 

Iowa farmer Doug Adams said he and his partner likely will try to renegotiate their rent on about 400 acres they added to their operation last year. Stephen Mally for The Wall Street Journal

The price-depressing glut of corn is benefiting companies that depend on grain for animal feed and other uses, including meatpackers, livestock farmers and ethanol producers. Shares of  Tyson Foods Inc.  TSN +2.58%     have soared 47% in the past 12 months, while rival chicken processor  Pilgrim's Pride Corp.  PPC -1.45%     has gained 95%. Shares of  Archer Daniels Midland Co.  ADM -0.10%     , which processes grain into ethanol, corn syrup and other products, are up 34%.

Lower global grain prices are helping consumers as well, especially in countries where the cost of bread and other staples accounts for a large share of spending. A monthly food-price index published by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization declined for a third month in a row in June to the lowest since January, largely due to a marked drop in grain and vegetable-oil prices.

The lower commodity costs could temper inflation in U.S. grocery aisles for cereal, cookies and other products containing grain and soy, though few packaged-food companies are likely to cut prices, analysts said.

 

 

 

But the slide in corn prices is expected to cut sharply into overall incomes in the U.S. Farm Belt because corn is the country's largest crop, grown on 350,000 farms and yielding about $60 billion in farmers' revenue last year.

Now 57% off its record high in 2012, corn is trading well below the $4-a-bushel threshold generally required for farmers to earn profits. That means many growers this year likely will fail to cover their costs for the first time since 2006, according to agricultural economists.

Signs of strain already are evident in the Midwest. Farmland values in some regions have begun to dip after a yearslong boom, and demand for farm equipment has slipped.  Deere  DE -0.19%     & Co., the world's largest seller of farm equipment, reported a 9.5% decline in its second-quarter profit in May and said U.S. sales of farm and landscaping equipment would decline between 5% and 10% this year. Sales of tractors, seeds and other farm supplies are expected to suffer further as farmers keep dialing back spending.

 

 

 

"A lot of money has evaporated," said Matt Bennett, who farms 3,000 acres in Windsor, Ill. "It's going to be hard not just on farmers, but also the guys who build sheds" and "sell pickup trucks."

Mr. Bennett, 39 years old, said he expects to make a profit this year because he already sold about half his expected crop for about $5 a bushel. But "margins will definitely get squeezed" and 2015 could be much tougher, he said.

On Thursday, corn for September delivery, the front-month contract, fell 1 cent, or 0.3%, to $3.615 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.

While the economic picture in the Farm Belt is worsening, economists and agricultural bankers said they aren't worried about severe shocks like the 1980s farm crisis because farmers carry relatively low debt levels and built up cash reserves during the recent boom. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has estimated the level of operator debt relative to farm assets would fall to 10.5% this year, the lowest since 1954.

Corn and soybean prices also could rebound somewhat if dry weather hits the Midwest late in the growing season, analysts said.

But if favorable weather continues, corn futures could fall to $3.25 a bushel, estimates Mark Schultz, an analyst with brokerage Northstar Commodity in Minneapolis. "This market will be in the doldrums this year and also into next year," he said.

The USDA projected in February that net U.S. farm income would decline 27% this year, to $95.8 billion, the lowest since 2010. Because growing conditions have been exceptional since then, some agricultural economists and bankers say the income drop could be even steeper, and continue next year. U.S. farm income last fell for two years in a row in 2005 and 2006.

 

 

Lower prices could temper inflation for cereal, cookies and other products containing grain and soy. Iowa farmer Doug Adams checks his crop. Stephen Mally for The Wall Street Journal

The abundance of U.S. corn comes just two years after a severe drought damaged crops and sent prices to more than $8.31 a bushel. Before last year's 40% plunge, corn prices had hovered above $6 a bushel for most of the previous three years, boosted by rising demand from the ethanol industry and foreign markets such as China. U.S. farm incomes remained high last year, reaching $130.5 billion, the most on an inflation-adjusted basis since 1973.

The USDA has projected this year's corn crop will total 13.86 billion bushels, just shy of last year's record 13.93 billion.

Because costs for tractors, combines, land, fertilizer and seeds mostly increased along with crop prices in recent years, many corn growers face losses when corn prices drop below $4 a bushel.

"It's a very different situation than we had a few years ago," said Patrick Westhoff, director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri. "We're talking about cutting net [financial] returns in half."

Bankers said they would take a cautious approach as they review farm loans after the growing season.

"There's a good chance based on what we're seeing that we could be looking at further reduction of incomes in 2015," said Eric McRae, executive vice president with First Mid-Illinois Bank & Trust in Decatur, Ill. "If that happens, we may be looking at more stringent controls."

Growers who rent land to grow crops, which accounts for about 38% of U.S. farm acreage, face the biggest impact from lower prices as costs generally are higher than for producers who own their land, said Gary Schnitkey, an agricultural economist at the University of Illinois.

Doug Adams, a 39-year-old Iowa farmer, said he and his business partner likely will try to renegotiate the rent they pay on about 400 acres they added to their operation last year.

"High cash rent is not going to be sustainable," said Mr. Adams, who has farmed since he graduated high school. "We can't rent farms and lose money year after year."

Write to Jesse Newman at jesse.newman@wsj.com and Tony C. Dreibus at tony.dreibus@dowjones.com