乌克兰动乱威胁粮食供给

Threat to Ukraine grain supplies
Events in the Ukraine could have an impact on the worldwide supply of grain

Published on the
09  March
2014
 

Before recent events in Ukraine most people would have struggled to know much about the former Soviet state.

The Crimean war there in the 19th century brought Florence Nightingale and the disastrous charge of the Light Brigade to certain death because of a misunderstood command. The country was one of the many to apparently happily exit years of communism and Russian control, but now it seems that not all in Ukraine want to turn West towards potential membership of the European Union.

Ukraine is also the former Soviet state closest to being an agricultural superpower. It is famous for its fertile black soil, which made it the bread basket of Europe. In terms of the importance of its agricultural industry to the Ukrainian economy it is similar to Northern Ireland. Agriculture accounts for five per cent of its gross national product and a quarter of all exports. It is vital to help prop up an economy that was far from healthy, even before the present conflict with Russia began. However when it comes to scale it is vast in agricultural terms. Ukraine is in fact the third biggest exporter of grain in the world, with annual exports of between 60 and 80 million tonnes, depending on the harvest.

So fertile are the soils that the Chinese government has leased thousands of acres of Ukrainian land to grow grain for import to China, to help tackle its food security problems. When Communism collapsed, developing Ukraine as a source of supply of grain was a massive boost for Europe, and when the harvest there was hit by drought European dependence was underlined by the grain price spike this produced. This week saw global grain markets reacting to events in Ukraine. Even in the US wheat futures saw their biggest one day jump for some time.

This reflected nervous markets rather than reality. Most crops are in the ground, and the expectation is that by the time harvest comes around the situation will have resolved itself. However the dependence of Europe on Black Sea grain exports cannot be ignored, and the situation has been complicated by some of the major Ukrainian ports being in the area now controlled by Russia. Compelling as that case may look for normality returning by the time we get to the harvest, such optimism could be swept away by political disagreements. Just a few weeks ago no-one would have factored in Russia effectively annexing part of Ukraine, emphasising that many are unhappy with the focus the government in Kiev had towards Europe.

This all adds an edge to comments by the outgoing English NFU president, Peter Kendal, when he criticised the greening element of the new CAP. Most farming leaders across Europe have been reluctant to criticise greening, seemingly seeing anything related to the environment as a no-go area for negative comments. However there is a lot of truth in his view that greening, and the three crop approach in particular, is the opposite to what Europe needs when generations of future farmers will live with a growing global demand for food outstripping supply. To Kendal greening was ‘madness’ and a policy that could only make European agriculture less competitive and less productive, when the rest of the world is trying to deliver more efficient agricultural industries. He summed up his views by saying that greening would take European agriculture in ‘profoundly the wrong direction’. For good measure, he added that the policy was likely to be less beneficial for the environment than the UK countryside stewardship schemes of various types, which the European Commission has accepted were the best in Europe for uptake and environmental delivery.

In his final comments as president of the NFU Peter Kendal also urged the UK government to make sure that whoever replaces Dacian Ciolos as farm commissioner next October is someone ready to put farmers first. This is certainly stinging criticism of Ciolos, and it is probably a triumph for hope over expectation that it is still possible to have an EU commissioner that fits that mould, since the definition of putting farmers first will vary between member states. However what is needed is a commissioner ready to take the issue of food security and a productive European agricultural industry seriously – and events in Ukraine and the threat to its grain supply should serve as a reminder of why that is important.