中国的对进口玉米的需求不断增长

September 11, 2013 4:11 pm

China sees rising appetite for corn imports

By Emiko Terazono

More money to spend and a growing taste for meat on the dinner table are transforming China’s appetite for corn imports. The effect on global food markets could be profound.

Under Beijing’s policy of “self-sufficiency”, corn imports, along with rice and wheat, have been kept to a minimum since China lowered its import barriers in 2001. The soyabean market, in contrast, was opened up to imports to release land for the key staples, and China has become the world’s largest importer of the oilseed.

But the world’s corn traders are feeling more upbeat as growing demand for livestock feed has brought a steady rise in corn imports.

In the long term, “China, currently representing over 75 per cent of global seaborne trade in soyabeans, will also become a major importer of corn,” says Chris Mahoney, head of agriculture at Glencore Xstrata.

A change in tone from Beijing is supportive of this view. Last year, Chinese agriculture minister Han Changfu wrote in an article that China would not allow itself to become dependent on foreign supplies and corn “should not become the second soyabean”. More recently, Mr Han said corn imports would have to rise gradually in order to meet feed demand.

Although the 95 per cent threshold for self-sufficiency has not changed, “the rising volume of grain and soyabean imports has stimulated a lot of discussion this year among Chinese officials and analysts about how to rethink the concept of self-sufficiency,” says Fred Gale, senior economist at the US Department of Agriculture.

Xu Xiaoqing, the head of the rural department at the State Council’s Development and Research Centre, a government think tank, last week told a conference in Beijing that China could import 20m-30m tonnes of corn a year to cover growing supply shortages.

“Our corn needs are up, which means in the future we will see some imports but not to the same extent as soya,” Mr Xu told the Financial Times.

“Importing 20m tonnes would not be a big deal, because it would only be about 10 per cent of our total consumption.”

Any small shift in China’s purchases could have profound implications for global food markets.

The corn imported by China is mainly for livestock feed, and demand is growing as the rise in average incomes leads to dietary changes and higher meat consumption.

China’s own grain output is at record levels, but demand growth is adding to the strain on its agricultural sector, already grappling with limits on farmland acreage and water supplies.

China’s corn imports are projected to more than double from 3m tonnes in the 2012-13 crop year to 7m tonnes in 2013-14, according to the USDA. By 2022, the country is forecast to become the leading corn importer, buying 19.6m tonnes from world markets.

China’s limited corn imports have mainly come from the US, but amid the rise in overseas purchases, there are indications that Beijing is looking for other sources of the commodity.

Earlier this year, Argentina shipped corn to China for the first time, and Ukraine is set to send its first shipments later this year.

Although there is no explicit policy of diversifying sources of imports the relatively speedy approval of Ukraine and Argentina as suppliers suggests Chinese officials are eager to have more options, say analysts.

Jean-Yves Chow, associate director at Rabobank’s trade commodity finance in Hong Kong, says: “China does not want to be caught solely dependent on the US. The US 2012 drought was a good reminder.”

Martin Fraguio, head of Argentine’s corn industry association Maizar, believes China’s purchases are price-based and any decision on their part depends on the market, but says “Argentina could have another two or three cargoes [to China] in the remaining part of the year”.

Ukraine too is setting its sights on China. Says one Kiev-based corn trader: “Ukraine is really starting to chip away at the American domination in this market.”

Additional reporting by Roman Olearchyk in Kiev

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2013. You may share using our article tools.
Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.